We are seeking “Success” over a reasonable “Judgment Period” by knowing when to embrace and reject conventional wisdom regarding perceived market trends, “Risk” and opportunities. Superior, above average, results over time are only achievable through unconventional decision-making, experience, and discipline.
– The probability of unrecoverable or semi-permanent loss of capital, not to be confused with variable degrees of periodic volatility.
– Generating asymmetrical results across all investment strategies: to expose ourselves to return in a way that doesn't expose us commensurately to risk, and to participate in gains when the market rises to a greater extent than we participate in losses when it falls.
Judgment Period (defn.)
– A period of time that captures a full investing cycle including both bull and bear markets – typically any rolling 5-6 year period